Are You Not Being Entertained? This Fall of the Goal Scoring
A key narrative of the EPL this campaign is the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and how clubs have been scoring increasingly from set-pieces as an alternative.
Comparing goal sources to matchday 11 last season, we see a drop of 39 goals in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer altogether.
If we look at the broader view, efforts on goal sides are producing reveal a staggering 370 fewer in open play than this time previously.
And despite the big increase in set-play finishes, records show only two additional shots generated from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency teams are at finding ways to net from dead-ball situations.
Scoring Rates Tell a Story
The 301 goals recorded in 110 games so far works out at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if this persists for the entire campaign could be the smallest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).
However, only 196 goals coming in open play translates to 1.78 per game and is heading to be the least for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season is also the only Premier League season to see goals scored more frequently from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 each match (0.79).
Which Teams Are Most Responsible?
When it comes to goals scored from open-play, Wolves have experienced the largest decline, scoring only four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than at this stage last season.
Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's fall in goals from open play is predominantly a London thing, with half of the capital's seven sides recording a minimum of five less scores from open-play than the prior season.
In fairness, that's largely down to them netting numerous goals at the start of the previous campaign as opposed to their genuine struggle to find the net in open play this campaign.
Meanwhile Manchester City have recorded the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 scores this season arriving in open-play.
Set-Play Proficiency
Looking at the promoted teams with those that were relegated they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have recorded three more goals in open-play than Southampton managed in their first 11 games en route to the drop last season.
When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the largest rise, with each team compensating for the five fewer scores that they've netted in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball chances.
Man United have recorded two times more scores from set-pieces as they did in the first 11 matches last season prior to Ruben Amorim took charge, while Sunderland once more have been more effective at netting than the club they replaced that went down.
City don't seem to have got the memo about netting additional goals from set-pieces, because they've netted a reduction of three than last season, similar to the Reds, although this may result from the altered approach they have tried to implement.
Overall Patterns
Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – represent this term's leading trend-followers by scoring fewer scores from open play and more from set-pieces, while Manchester City stand as the unique club to buck the trend up to now by performing the complete reverse.
It will be fascinating to watch if sides persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they regain their overall inventiveness and begin netting increased totals in open play too.
